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| unit | forecast (of all votes) | forecast | last general (of all votes) | change | expected votes |
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| party of the voter | requested | returned | returned, share of requested | share of all returned |
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This model reads individual voters. It learns most from a stated answer and next most from a yard sign. Both are kept confidential, and personal details are protected.
Take the two-minute survey · Send a photo of a yard sign · Or drop photos in the Google Drive folder (others with the link can see what is in it)
Any candidate, any race. The model counts each photo as one sign at one house and tallies signs by neighborhood. No photo, address or name is ever published. People who choose to answer are not a random sample, so the statewide figure on this page does not come from them.
Full method notes are on the Methods tab. On the Scenarios tab you can set the statewide figure yourself and see what it means for each county.