Scenarios: each statewide race under your assumptions

This page is not a forecast. It starts from the Forecast tab's numbers and lets you change them. Pick an office. Then set the electorate party by party (how many of each party's registrants vote, and how they split), or set the margin in the governor's race directly. For an office below governor, also set how far it runs from the governor's race on the same ballots. Shares are of all votes cast for the office. Margins are Democrat minus Republican in points of all votes, written with the leading party. Each default has a named source. Pick another source from a list, pick a preset or move a slider, and the page recomputes every precinct.

Assumptions

Implied result

Why these defaults

What decides it

The electorate by party

party of the registrantactive registrantsballots (model)ballots (now)share of ballotsDemocrat's share of them

What the dials say

Implied result by unit

unitvotes on the lineDemocratRepublicanmarginbase marginmoved by

Every precinct, under these levers

Show View by Values by

← HQ